I think it is safe to say that Ned Colletti has done a bad job with his free agent signings. We all know that. But lets take a different look at this situation alltogether.
1. The Dodgers currently have 10 free agents that still haven't signed with anyone this offseason. Only the Red Sox and Mets are close. Of the remaining (Joe Beimel, lhp; Gary Bennett, c; Nomar Garciaparra, ss; Jason Johnson, rhp; Jeff Kent, 2b; Greg Maddux, rhp (aanounced retirement); Pablo Ozuna; Manny Ramirez, of; Mark Sweeney) only Beimel and Nomar might be able to get a contract that guarantees them a spot on the 25 man roster or DL. Manny, Kent, and Maddux are all set to retire. But the rest of the guys are crap. No one will sign them. And to be honest I'm surprised anyone signed Berroa.
2. No one wants the current FA signings we have. Think of any of our current position players that were signed as free agents. Schmidt, Furcal, Pierre, Jones, Kuroda, Blake, Loretta... do you think anyone would want them in a trade. I think teams might take a flier on Loretta. And someone might add Furcal, Kuroda, and Blake if we put some money in the pot. But clearly no one wants Pierre, Jones, or Schmidt.
Ned has done such a terrible job at putting together a team that can be flexible, moveable contracts that he has no room to sign one of the greatest right handed batters of all time. Granted, the game he is playing with Boras is legendary. Lets just hope he waits it out and pulls of 2 year deal with 3rd year option. I have a bad feeling that ultimately he will end up with the Giants.
Anyway... this post was focused directly on the bad signings of Ned Colletti. It can only get worse with names like Kris Benson, Jon Garland, and Randy Wolf being bandied about.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
The End of an era....
Sayonara Andruw Jones. Apparently team officials want Jones gone by January 15th. No sense in keeping him until after the he proves he can do something and try and trade him and save 5 million. Lets just cut our ties now and let him show progress with some other team on our dime. It just begs me to ask one question...
When will the Ned Colletti era end?
cross your fingers.
When will the Ned Colletti era end?
cross your fingers.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Good and Bad news.
The good news is that Pat Burell signed with the Rays for an annual salary of 8 million dollars. This means the price for Manny should drop off quite a bit. I had Burrell going for at least 10-12 million a year. Last year Pat made 14 million and it's concieveable that he's be looking for a slight bump this year. For him to take half of what was projected just shows you the market for baseclogging/non-defensive hitmen.
The bad news: If Burell is going for roughly half of what was expected this brings Manny into play for a lot more teams. Manny at 15 million instead of 25 million makes both New York teams, the Giants, Angels, any AL team, and the Dodgers into the bidding war for him. In the end I don't think anyone can offer him more than what the Dodgers can, but does this mean some desperate AL team offers him the 6 year deal he is looking for? Even if the annual salary is only 15 million a year, thats still 90 million bucks. I can't see the Dodgers going past 3 years and 60-70 million.
If we can have Dunn at 9 million a year he is totally worth it! I'm not as sure about him playing first as I once was, but it is an option. Even Bobby Abreu at less than 10 million a year is a steal. If that would mean Ethier moves back to left our outfield defense would be a significant upgrade. Granted Abreu's defensive numbers have dropped off quite a bit. I still think I'd rather have Manny in left for 3 years and 66.6 million. The number is fitting.
The bad news: If Burell is going for roughly half of what was expected this brings Manny into play for a lot more teams. Manny at 15 million instead of 25 million makes both New York teams, the Giants, Angels, any AL team, and the Dodgers into the bidding war for him. In the end I don't think anyone can offer him more than what the Dodgers can, but does this mean some desperate AL team offers him the 6 year deal he is looking for? Even if the annual salary is only 15 million a year, thats still 90 million bucks. I can't see the Dodgers going past 3 years and 60-70 million.
If we can have Dunn at 9 million a year he is totally worth it! I'm not as sure about him playing first as I once was, but it is an option. Even Bobby Abreu at less than 10 million a year is a steal. If that would mean Ethier moves back to left our outfield defense would be a significant upgrade. Granted Abreu's defensive numbers have dropped off quite a bit. I still think I'd rather have Manny in left for 3 years and 66.6 million. The number is fitting.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Payroll
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/los-angeles-dodgers.html
According to Cott's baseball contracts the Dodgers have, roughly, 88 million locked up for the 2009 season. I am estimating 5 million each for Ethier, Martin, and Broxton. I think Martin and Ethier will get more than 5 and Broxton less, but in the end were talking about less than 2 million each way. So the payroll is currently between 82-94 million range. Still far less than last year.
And while we are still not using our resources to the best of their abilities (Dewitt at second?), we still have enough cash free to sign Manny. But we also need at least one more starter. We are still 28 million below what we were at last year, but given the decline in the economy, I am to assume that we will be somewhere in the 110 million range.
A guy like Andy Pettitte must be on the dodgers radar. At 10 million next year I'll take him over having Sheets, Perez, or Garland all of which have significant draw backs and multiple year contract requests. Garland might be the pony of the group. He would eat innings at a terrible cost. Perez would be a nightmare watcing because he walks everyone. And Sheets is just another Jason Schmidt in the making. He's missed significant time 3 of his last 4 years. He's been effective, but what we need is someone to eat innings (be healthy), be effective, and also not cost us more than one year.
Randy Johnson right?
Wrong.
Anyway, Pettitte should be the only one on the Dodgers list. If we could trade Jones and eat some of the salary then great. But I'd rather just send him to Albuquerque and hope he figures it out.
Hopefully after signing Pettitte we still have enough money to make a run at Manny for 2 years and 45 million again. Backload the contract so we can pay him more when Jones and Schmidt leave.
By 2010 Martin, Ethier, Broxton, and Bills will all qualify for a bump. It's only going to get harder from here on out. I hope Ned gets fired!
According to Cott's baseball contracts the Dodgers have, roughly, 88 million locked up for the 2009 season. I am estimating 5 million each for Ethier, Martin, and Broxton. I think Martin and Ethier will get more than 5 and Broxton less, but in the end were talking about less than 2 million each way. So the payroll is currently between 82-94 million range. Still far less than last year.
And while we are still not using our resources to the best of their abilities (Dewitt at second?), we still have enough cash free to sign Manny. But we also need at least one more starter. We are still 28 million below what we were at last year, but given the decline in the economy, I am to assume that we will be somewhere in the 110 million range.
A guy like Andy Pettitte must be on the dodgers radar. At 10 million next year I'll take him over having Sheets, Perez, or Garland all of which have significant draw backs and multiple year contract requests. Garland might be the pony of the group. He would eat innings at a terrible cost. Perez would be a nightmare watcing because he walks everyone. And Sheets is just another Jason Schmidt in the making. He's missed significant time 3 of his last 4 years. He's been effective, but what we need is someone to eat innings (be healthy), be effective, and also not cost us more than one year.
Randy Johnson right?
Wrong.
Anyway, Pettitte should be the only one on the Dodgers list. If we could trade Jones and eat some of the salary then great. But I'd rather just send him to Albuquerque and hope he figures it out.
Hopefully after signing Pettitte we still have enough money to make a run at Manny for 2 years and 45 million again. Backload the contract so we can pay him more when Jones and Schmidt leave.
By 2010 Martin, Ethier, Broxton, and Bills will all qualify for a bump. It's only going to get harder from here on out. I hope Ned gets fired!
Monday, December 29, 2008
Just spitballin here...
So, cut me a little slack.
Jason Stark has come out and said that the Dodgers are interested in signing Adam Dunn. Surely not to play left field!? While Dunn is a power threat I still think Manny would be needed in our order. So Loney would have to go... for a starting pitcher! But who?
I've expressed my interest in Bedard already. If we signed Dunn and Manny, we'd also have to shed some payroll. Naturally no one would want to take on Jones or Pierre all by themselves. I think we'd have to pair either of them up with Loney and Hu and take on a mediocrely bad contract.
Something like this really hamstrings the process, so Ned better have something lined up before signing Dunn. I think if he were actually going to sign Dunn he would have done it already. I think this is just a scare tactic. Manny will sign eventually with the Dodgers and take 22-25 million over 2 years with a third option. I like the direction this is going for the Dodgers. I wouldn't mind if we signed Dunn to play first and traded Loney for a decent starting pitcher while also ridding ourselves of Jones or Pierre. Could you imagine the lineup?
Furcal
Martin
Dunn
Manny
Ethier
Kemp
Blake
Dewitt
P
Not too bad. Plenty of power and OBP at the top and some clutchiness/veteranyness/potential at the bottom. I like it. So that means its not going to happen. I still don't like have Casey Blake but whatever.
Jason Stark has come out and said that the Dodgers are interested in signing Adam Dunn. Surely not to play left field!? While Dunn is a power threat I still think Manny would be needed in our order. So Loney would have to go... for a starting pitcher! But who?
I've expressed my interest in Bedard already. If we signed Dunn and Manny, we'd also have to shed some payroll. Naturally no one would want to take on Jones or Pierre all by themselves. I think we'd have to pair either of them up with Loney and Hu and take on a mediocrely bad contract.
Something like this really hamstrings the process, so Ned better have something lined up before signing Dunn. I think if he were actually going to sign Dunn he would have done it already. I think this is just a scare tactic. Manny will sign eventually with the Dodgers and take 22-25 million over 2 years with a third option. I like the direction this is going for the Dodgers. I wouldn't mind if we signed Dunn to play first and traded Loney for a decent starting pitcher while also ridding ourselves of Jones or Pierre. Could you imagine the lineup?
Furcal
Martin
Dunn
Manny
Ethier
Kemp
Blake
Dewitt
P
Not too bad. Plenty of power and OBP at the top and some clutchiness/veteranyness/potential at the bottom. I like it. So that means its not going to happen. I still don't like have Casey Blake but whatever.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Better options at SP.
After some excessive research (on youtube) I could see a possibility of the Dodgers plunging into the international market. While it can be argued that Ned has hamstringed the farm by not spending any money at all on international players, whoever is scouting the japanese market is clearly doing a great job. To say we need more of it is an understatement.
Takashi Saito and Hiroki Kuroda could possibly get some company with either Kenshin Kawakami or Koji Uerehara. I like both pitchers. Both have decent K rates and go deep into the season. Both supposedly have similar traits to Kuroda as "big game pitchers". If we could sign either of them (or both... unlikely) for a similar contract to Kuroda I'd be happy with it. Considering our optoins are now limited to :
Pedro Martinez
Eric Milton
Oliver Perez
Ben Sheets
Randy Wolf
Andy Pettitte
I'd rather take the international route as well.
Takashi Saito and Hiroki Kuroda could possibly get some company with either Kenshin Kawakami or Koji Uerehara. I like both pitchers. Both have decent K rates and go deep into the season. Both supposedly have similar traits to Kuroda as "big game pitchers". If we could sign either of them (or both... unlikely) for a similar contract to Kuroda I'd be happy with it. Considering our optoins are now limited to :
Pedro Martinez
Eric Milton
Oliver Perez
Ben Sheets
Randy Wolf
Andy Pettitte
I'd rather take the international route as well.
So... there goes that.
Johnson is off the table. Thanks to the giants I can hate a player that is easy to hate. The official Red-Arse will be pitching for the Orange and Black next year throwing his 45 year old 90 mile an hour fast balls to Dodger hitters not likely named Manny Ramirez.
The Dodgers largest hole is still in the rotation. Even if we don't sign Manny we have options that could play reasonably well in left field. A Juandruw Pones monster in left/center would be a nasty thing to see. It would also be an abomination to have to settle with a 4th and 5th starter giving us laegue average or less quality because McCourt couldn't drop the cash on decent players. The well is drying up fast. And if Ben Sheets is still eyeing Texas our option shortens to .... gulp... Andy Pettitte.
Over the last 4 years he has been a little more durable than I would like to remember, but he hasn't been very effective. And at 10+ million dollars being called Randy Johnson Lite at a fraction of the cost isn't very reassuring.
While the talk around the net is about Manny being freed up for the Dodgers and literally no one else, the Dodgers largest hole is still in the pitching staff. Who else is there.
I had conversations with my brother concerning Eric Bedard. I suppose my main concern is that if he couldn't handle the big lights in Seattle, what would enable him to settle down in LA and become the lights out pitcher of 2007? Surely we'd be able to get him without giving up anyone on our current 25 man roster. I'd send Hu, Miller, Orenduff, Repko, and another throw in. I doubt that would get it done, but you never know? Naturally it would be a temporary fix. But Hu is only going to be a caddy to Furcal/Dewitt up the middle and finding someone to replace him shouldn't go any further than our own farm system.
The main reason why I would consider Bedard is because, 1. was good last year when he wasn't hurt, 2. he is canadian. I could only assume that he and Martin would get along well enough to overcome the "playing in the big city" effect.
Miller, Orenduff and Repko are nothing that the current team wont miss. Getting any kind of value for these 4 would be a great coupe. I doubt, again, that Ned would pull off such a deal and I figure he could only be thinking that something like this could only be done by sending Kershaw over. It sounds so illogical it makes sense. Not to me... but when I put my "Colletti-dunce" hat on it all lines up.
Before we can address Manny we need one more starter.
The Dodgers largest hole is still in the rotation. Even if we don't sign Manny we have options that could play reasonably well in left field. A Juandruw Pones monster in left/center would be a nasty thing to see. It would also be an abomination to have to settle with a 4th and 5th starter giving us laegue average or less quality because McCourt couldn't drop the cash on decent players. The well is drying up fast. And if Ben Sheets is still eyeing Texas our option shortens to .... gulp... Andy Pettitte.
Over the last 4 years he has been a little more durable than I would like to remember, but he hasn't been very effective. And at 10+ million dollars being called Randy Johnson Lite at a fraction of the cost isn't very reassuring.
While the talk around the net is about Manny being freed up for the Dodgers and literally no one else, the Dodgers largest hole is still in the pitching staff. Who else is there.
I had conversations with my brother concerning Eric Bedard. I suppose my main concern is that if he couldn't handle the big lights in Seattle, what would enable him to settle down in LA and become the lights out pitcher of 2007? Surely we'd be able to get him without giving up anyone on our current 25 man roster. I'd send Hu, Miller, Orenduff, Repko, and another throw in. I doubt that would get it done, but you never know? Naturally it would be a temporary fix. But Hu is only going to be a caddy to Furcal/Dewitt up the middle and finding someone to replace him shouldn't go any further than our own farm system.
The main reason why I would consider Bedard is because, 1. was good last year when he wasn't hurt, 2. he is canadian. I could only assume that he and Martin would get along well enough to overcome the "playing in the big city" effect.
Miller, Orenduff and Repko are nothing that the current team wont miss. Getting any kind of value for these 4 would be a great coupe. I doubt, again, that Ned would pull off such a deal and I figure he could only be thinking that something like this could only be done by sending Kershaw over. It sounds so illogical it makes sense. Not to me... but when I put my "Colletti-dunce" hat on it all lines up.
Before we can address Manny we need one more starter.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Predictions update.
So Teixiera has signed with the Yankees. Supposedly. At least this is not a FOXSports rumor. ESPN has reported that Teixiera has signed with the Yankees for 180 million over 8 years. At the beginning of the offseason it seemes simple to think that the Yankees would target Tex after losing Giambi and Abreu. Instead they traded junk for Swisher and added starting pitching depth only to come away with Teixiera before Boston could counter.
This just means its less likely that they also add Manny. Unless they trade any one or two of Melky, Swisher, Nady, Matsui and Damon. I don't think that they will hold onto all 5 but it might not be such a bad idea as Matsui and Damon are both huge injury risks. Nady is best as a part time player and Melky is best at AAA. They really should target a real centerfielder like Mike Cameron or more starting pitching depth.
This just makes it more likely that the Dodgers sign Manny. Unfortunately it also means that since Ned has the advantage in negotiations he will likely sign Manny to a 3 or 4 year deal. I still think it'd be best to just let him go and collect the picks.
Apparently Derek Lowe is in conversations with the Mets. It seems more likely that the Mets add a starting pitcher before targeting a bat like Burrell. If he signs with the Mets we get their 1st round pick and a sandwich pick. Hopefully Manny signs with someone other than the Yankees because we would get their 2nd round pick and a sandwich pick.
I still maintain that the Dodgers would do well to add maybe one or 2 starters. Id be happy with any 1 or 2 of Oliver Perez, Randy Johnson, or Ben Sheets. I'd be happy with Johnson and Sheets at 20 million total. Anything more than that and we are taking a significant risk. I't would be hard to justify signing Perez. He has high walk rates and is incredibly erratic. I like Sheets and Johnsons control as the current mix of youth we throw out there is still struggling with control. Plus Perez is a Borass client. We can't have any of that now.
This just means its less likely that they also add Manny. Unless they trade any one or two of Melky, Swisher, Nady, Matsui and Damon. I don't think that they will hold onto all 5 but it might not be such a bad idea as Matsui and Damon are both huge injury risks. Nady is best as a part time player and Melky is best at AAA. They really should target a real centerfielder like Mike Cameron or more starting pitching depth.
This just makes it more likely that the Dodgers sign Manny. Unfortunately it also means that since Ned has the advantage in negotiations he will likely sign Manny to a 3 or 4 year deal. I still think it'd be best to just let him go and collect the picks.
Apparently Derek Lowe is in conversations with the Mets. It seems more likely that the Mets add a starting pitcher before targeting a bat like Burrell. If he signs with the Mets we get their 1st round pick and a sandwich pick. Hopefully Manny signs with someone other than the Yankees because we would get their 2nd round pick and a sandwich pick.
I still maintain that the Dodgers would do well to add maybe one or 2 starters. Id be happy with any 1 or 2 of Oliver Perez, Randy Johnson, or Ben Sheets. I'd be happy with Johnson and Sheets at 20 million total. Anything more than that and we are taking a significant risk. I't would be hard to justify signing Perez. He has high walk rates and is incredibly erratic. I like Sheets and Johnsons control as the current mix of youth we throw out there is still struggling with control. Plus Perez is a Borass client. We can't have any of that now.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Top Remaning free agents predictions
1. Mark Teixiera- Boston Red Sox.
2. Manny- New York Yankees.
3. Derek Lowe- Atlanta Braves
4. Adam Dunn- Washinton Nationals
5. Ben Sheets- Texas Rangers
6. Jason Giambi- Oakland A's
7. Milton Bradley- Toronto Blue Jays
8. Orlando Hudson- Seattle Mariners
9. Pat Burrell- New York Mets
10. Brian Fuentes- St. Louis Cardinals
11. Bobby Abreu- Cincinnatti Reds
2. Manny- New York Yankees.
3. Derek Lowe- Atlanta Braves
4. Adam Dunn- Washinton Nationals
5. Ben Sheets- Texas Rangers
6. Jason Giambi- Oakland A's
7. Milton Bradley- Toronto Blue Jays
8. Orlando Hudson- Seattle Mariners
9. Pat Burrell- New York Mets
10. Brian Fuentes- St. Louis Cardinals
11. Bobby Abreu- Cincinnatti Reds
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Dodgers get Furcal.
Furcal gets $7.5 million next season, $9.5 million in 2010 and $13 million in 2011. The deal includes a $13 million team option for 2012 with a $3 million buyout.
It's a backloaded deal. So maybe Ned is intending on spending more on a starting pitcher now. I still think an incentive laden deal was best.
With roughly 8 million to Furcal, 6 to Blake, and 1.25 to Loretta we still have about 35 million to spend this offseason. We need a starting pitcher and I am afraid that Ned will waste a lot of money on ANOTHER outfielder. I hope not.
I don't think we're gonna get Manny and the next best option is Dunn. That said, Ned will probably settle with Burell at 16 million. BAH!
Update: The numbers are different. 6.5 next year. 8.5 in 2010 and 12 in 2011 with an option for 13 million in 2012. Even better.
It's a backloaded deal. So maybe Ned is intending on spending more on a starting pitcher now. I still think an incentive laden deal was best.
With roughly 8 million to Furcal, 6 to Blake, and 1.25 to Loretta we still have about 35 million to spend this offseason. We need a starting pitcher and I am afraid that Ned will waste a lot of money on ANOTHER outfielder. I hope not.
I don't think we're gonna get Manny and the next best option is Dunn. That said, Ned will probably settle with Burell at 16 million. BAH!
Update: The numbers are different. 6.5 next year. 8.5 in 2010 and 12 in 2011 with an option for 13 million in 2012. Even better.
Furcal update.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8954110/Sources:-Furcal-picks-Dodgers-over-Braves
According to Ken Rosencrap Furcal has chosen to sign with the Dodgers. If it is true (don't hold your breath- consider the source) it appears that Furcal chose the Dodgers because he would be able to play short. Whereas playing in Atlanta meants playing second base. Dollar numbers would likely be very similar at about 10 million a year for 3 years with a 4th option year.
If this is true the Dodgers just got better. They still need an effective starting pitcher. That might be had by using our own resources more effectively.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hidden-gem-ramon-troncoso
Dave Cameron, writer at ussmariner, suggests using Troncoso as a starter. His groundball rates are Derek Lowe'esque, and his strikeout rates are Jake Peavey'esque. What a mixture! Don't let his ERA fool you. He does have a great power sinker and if he could mix a good slider and an offspeed pitch in there he really might be poised for stardom. Again: Don't hold your breath. He will be a nice addition to the bullpenn in a long relief role/ spot stater role to go along with Scott Elbert and James McDonald.
Our best option in the free agent market right now is to sign Randy Johnson. He doesn't block anyone from coming up in 2010. He is still effective and he is a veteran precense... which is worth an extra 6.75 wins per season (according to Colletti-logic). I think if we were signing an outfielder I'd still want someone with some defensive abilities. That rules out all the current free agent outfielders...
So lets just stick with Jones in center, Ethier in left (his natural position) and Kemp in right (his natural position). By saving runs defensively the team can manage to win more games. Manny would help, but having Kemp and Ethier out of position the outfield defense is abysmal. Kemp is league average in center and Ethier is terrible in right. They both have great arms no matter what position they are playing but their range and effectiveness suffers when out of position.
The difference between a good offense and a great defense is a push. Except we save the money used on Manny for another day. Or even possibly a better starting pitcher. I know having Jones play full time is not everyone's ideal situation, well it's downright lunacy, but it is our best option.
According to Ken Rosencrap Furcal has chosen to sign with the Dodgers. If it is true (don't hold your breath- consider the source) it appears that Furcal chose the Dodgers because he would be able to play short. Whereas playing in Atlanta meants playing second base. Dollar numbers would likely be very similar at about 10 million a year for 3 years with a 4th option year.
If this is true the Dodgers just got better. They still need an effective starting pitcher. That might be had by using our own resources more effectively.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hidden-gem-ramon-troncoso
Dave Cameron, writer at ussmariner, suggests using Troncoso as a starter. His groundball rates are Derek Lowe'esque, and his strikeout rates are Jake Peavey'esque. What a mixture! Don't let his ERA fool you. He does have a great power sinker and if he could mix a good slider and an offspeed pitch in there he really might be poised for stardom. Again: Don't hold your breath. He will be a nice addition to the bullpenn in a long relief role/ spot stater role to go along with Scott Elbert and James McDonald.
Our best option in the free agent market right now is to sign Randy Johnson. He doesn't block anyone from coming up in 2010. He is still effective and he is a veteran precense... which is worth an extra 6.75 wins per season (according to Colletti-logic). I think if we were signing an outfielder I'd still want someone with some defensive abilities. That rules out all the current free agent outfielders...
So lets just stick with Jones in center, Ethier in left (his natural position) and Kemp in right (his natural position). By saving runs defensively the team can manage to win more games. Manny would help, but having Kemp and Ethier out of position the outfield defense is abysmal. Kemp is league average in center and Ethier is terrible in right. They both have great arms no matter what position they are playing but their range and effectiveness suffers when out of position.
The difference between a good offense and a great defense is a push. Except we save the money used on Manny for another day. Or even possibly a better starting pitcher. I know having Jones play full time is not everyone's ideal situation, well it's downright lunacy, but it is our best option.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Furcal
So here is the contract I'd offer.
A 4 years 32 million dollar base salary with a games played incentive.
If he playes 140 games in year one of the contract he gets a 2 millon dollar bonus with a 2 millon dollar bonus after year 2. The same bonus would carry over to year 2, 3, and 4. Making it potentially a 4 year 52 million dollar contract if he plays in 140 games all 4 years. He is worth the money if he is healthy.
Adversely if he does not play 140 games in a year he only gets his base salary of 8 million. The problem is going to be if he starts to play hurt again like he did in 07. I still like having him around when he is healthy, but if he is not healthy I don't want to waste so much money.
I still think he signs with the Braves though. Cross your fingers.
A 4 years 32 million dollar base salary with a games played incentive.
If he playes 140 games in year one of the contract he gets a 2 millon dollar bonus with a 2 millon dollar bonus after year 2. The same bonus would carry over to year 2, 3, and 4. Making it potentially a 4 year 52 million dollar contract if he plays in 140 games all 4 years. He is worth the money if he is healthy.
Adversely if he does not play 140 games in a year he only gets his base salary of 8 million. The problem is going to be if he starts to play hurt again like he did in 07. I still like having him around when he is healthy, but if he is not healthy I don't want to waste so much money.
I still think he signs with the Braves though. Cross your fingers.
And the mystery team is...
the Braves.
Furcal did indeed agree to terms with the Atlanta Braves today. Reports had Furcal being offered contracts from the A's, Royals, Dodgers, and a "mystery team".
Furcal chose the Braves and what they have done created some flexability for the future. If they aren't comfortable with Yunel Escobar they can make a misdeason trade and pick up a valuable pitcher. Meanwhile Furcal will move to second and Kelly Johnson will play left field.
The Dodgers hopes of fielding a playoff worthy team is slowly slipping down the drain. The good news is, the worse this team gets, the better the liklihood of Joe Torre and Ned Colletti getting fired gets. So, lets just play for 2010!
Hopefully we don't sign anyone else that could impact the team negatively for 2010 (Casey Blake, Manny Ramirez, etc). I can only hope that we also don't make any blunderous trades for players that will be free agents after next year. It seems Colletti is willing to trade prospects on the cheap and sign aging free agents to lucrative long term deals. This the exact opposite plan he should be taking at building a major league team.
Anyway, next years free agent crop looks a little better than this years. Considering we don't truely have a leadoff hitter anymore (unless you consider Pierre a leadoff hitter... and then I would consider you mentally challenged) next year Brian Roberts will be a free agent. Of course he would be blocking Blake Dewitt at second and Dewitt can't move to third because of the blunderous signing of Casey Blake. However, we could move Casey to the outfield (which I don't like) or we could have Casey be our roving right handed bat off the bench (a role he could fill now). Other options next year include Adrian Beltre, Placido Polanco, Freddy Sanchez, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Jermaine Dye, Miguel Tejada, and Jack Wilson... wait who? Scratch Jack Wilson. I wouldn't have him on my team if he was free.
Concentrating on the 09 team, what other options will help us both this year and the 2010 team.
1. Getting rid of Juan Pierre. That should be the first choice on anyone's team.
2. Signing a good, young, injury free, starting pitcher.
a. Oliver Perez- not the best option, but the best option was taken by the Yankees.
b. Ben Sheets- still not a good option as he has Jason Schmidt written all over him
c. rely on the youth. I like this option best.
3. Get that POWER bat!
a. Manny- Seems unlikely as the Yankees have now drawn interest in him. Though it is more unlikely that they sign him.
b. Wait till next year. I like this option best.
4. Find undervalued players that go unnoticed on other teams and make smart trades for them.
5. Use the rule 5 draft to find talented players that can't fit on most teams rosters. Good thing Colletti passed up his drafting spot by taking no one!
I just can't see us competing for a playoff spot next year. Not this team. Not with Juan Pierre AND Chin Lung Hu starting. The pitching staff should be pretty good no matter who we sign. We certainly need someone who can eat up innings. And we still really need a power bat.
Update: Apparently Furcal hasn't agreed to the terms of the Braves contract. His agent will be calling the Dodgers today to try and match or exceed it. No doubt Colletti will. And I for one think it is worth it. 3 years at 33 million with an option 4th year at the same rate. If he signs it just means Pierre has no place on the team.
Furcal did indeed agree to terms with the Atlanta Braves today. Reports had Furcal being offered contracts from the A's, Royals, Dodgers, and a "mystery team".
Furcal chose the Braves and what they have done created some flexability for the future. If they aren't comfortable with Yunel Escobar they can make a misdeason trade and pick up a valuable pitcher. Meanwhile Furcal will move to second and Kelly Johnson will play left field.
The Dodgers hopes of fielding a playoff worthy team is slowly slipping down the drain. The good news is, the worse this team gets, the better the liklihood of Joe Torre and Ned Colletti getting fired gets. So, lets just play for 2010!
Hopefully we don't sign anyone else that could impact the team negatively for 2010 (Casey Blake, Manny Ramirez, etc). I can only hope that we also don't make any blunderous trades for players that will be free agents after next year. It seems Colletti is willing to trade prospects on the cheap and sign aging free agents to lucrative long term deals. This the exact opposite plan he should be taking at building a major league team.
Anyway, next years free agent crop looks a little better than this years. Considering we don't truely have a leadoff hitter anymore (unless you consider Pierre a leadoff hitter... and then I would consider you mentally challenged) next year Brian Roberts will be a free agent. Of course he would be blocking Blake Dewitt at second and Dewitt can't move to third because of the blunderous signing of Casey Blake. However, we could move Casey to the outfield (which I don't like) or we could have Casey be our roving right handed bat off the bench (a role he could fill now). Other options next year include Adrian Beltre, Placido Polanco, Freddy Sanchez, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Jermaine Dye, Miguel Tejada, and Jack Wilson... wait who? Scratch Jack Wilson. I wouldn't have him on my team if he was free.
Concentrating on the 09 team, what other options will help us both this year and the 2010 team.
1. Getting rid of Juan Pierre. That should be the first choice on anyone's team.
2. Signing a good, young, injury free, starting pitcher.
a. Oliver Perez- not the best option, but the best option was taken by the Yankees.
b. Ben Sheets- still not a good option as he has Jason Schmidt written all over him
c. rely on the youth. I like this option best.
3. Get that POWER bat!
a. Manny- Seems unlikely as the Yankees have now drawn interest in him. Though it is more unlikely that they sign him.
b. Wait till next year. I like this option best.
4. Find undervalued players that go unnoticed on other teams and make smart trades for them.
5. Use the rule 5 draft to find talented players that can't fit on most teams rosters. Good thing Colletti passed up his drafting spot by taking no one!
I just can't see us competing for a playoff spot next year. Not this team. Not with Juan Pierre AND Chin Lung Hu starting. The pitching staff should be pretty good no matter who we sign. We certainly need someone who can eat up innings. And we still really need a power bat.
Update: Apparently Furcal hasn't agreed to the terms of the Braves contract. His agent will be calling the Dodgers today to try and match or exceed it. No doubt Colletti will. And I for one think it is worth it. 3 years at 33 million with an option 4th year at the same rate. If he signs it just means Pierre has no place on the team.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Turn your back!
Ken Gurnick answeres some questions from Dodger fans at main site. This one touched me specifically, as I am more of an unrealistic fan. It's easy to see where other teams have made improvements in their respective front offices (Mariners, Red Sox, A's, Brewers, Rays) by adding a division that uses statistical analysis instead of/ or with typical scouting. The Mariners specifically will no longer have travelling scouts but use a video analysis system.
Do you think this will be the year when Dodger fans turn their backs on the team?-- Mike M., Riverside, Calif.
The Dodgers were in baseball's final four two months ago. The Angels weren't. The Yankees weren't. If fans are turning their backs on the Dodgers because they aren't spending more money than the Yankees, consider that the Dodgers spent wildly in the past on the winter's top free agent (Kevin Brown) and heaped tons of money to keep their own players from leaving. It hasn't worked.
The question wasn't about spending money. The question was about management overall and the fans turning their backs on the stupid Dodger management. I will always be a Dodger fan, but if they sign any more high priced free agents over the age of 35 it will be easy for me to never watch another game knowing that they can't win that way.
Also, you can't possibly make the case that the Dodgers were a better team than the Yankees or Angels because we made it further in the playoffs. We made it further because we faced the rest of the "nancy" NL West and a Cubs team that fell asleep at the wheel sometime in late July when clinched the NL Central.
The Dodgers are trying a different approach, dependent on the continued improvement of their younger players. A lot of fans never will be happy with that approach. They only want the biggest names that come with the biggest salaries, and they will be satisfied with nothing less.
None of last year's highest-paid free agents signed with the Phillies or the Rays, who met in the World Series. If spending the most always meant winning the World Series, the Yankees would have won rings over the last eight seasons. They didn't.
I for one will be happy if we take the "go young" approach! I've always felt that we need players from both free agency and our farm system, but the only way we could develop a winning additude was to play players that we drafted. Signing Jones, Schmidt and Pierre didn't work. 2 out of the 3 we knew it wouldn't work. And Jones was questionable at best. We certainly need to fill our holes with free agency. But to try and develop excess through it is ridiculous. We'd have 5 full time outfielders with Manny. 2 of which would be on the bench making a combined 30 million dollars. I'm not in favor of that. But at the same we would still have a hole in the outfield if we didn't sign Manny.
Logan White has done his job in the draft. Taking great players and loading up our system with uber-talent. Ned has traded some of that away in mostly questionable deals. Whatever system he has for the Dodgers (I don't think he has one) isn't working and we do need a change before he ruins what little hope we do have.
The McCourts are running a business, not only a team. There always will be fans resenting that, especially when the Yankees seem to have no limit to their resources. But it's reality.
I totally understand that baseball is a business. There is a huge amount of money being passed around and it can't go overlooked. The reality is, when passing around such huge amounts of moeny, why would they do it so unwisely? Why would they invest 125 million in the ideas of a mad man named Ned Colletti? Oh the humanity!
It will be easy for me to turn my back on the Dodgers when they raise ticket prices, parking prices, and concession prices, and they can't even field a winning team. It will be easy to change my colors to a blue more aqua (Seattle).
Do you think this will be the year when Dodger fans turn their backs on the team?-- Mike M., Riverside, Calif.
The Dodgers were in baseball's final four two months ago. The Angels weren't. The Yankees weren't. If fans are turning their backs on the Dodgers because they aren't spending more money than the Yankees, consider that the Dodgers spent wildly in the past on the winter's top free agent (Kevin Brown) and heaped tons of money to keep their own players from leaving. It hasn't worked.
The question wasn't about spending money. The question was about management overall and the fans turning their backs on the stupid Dodger management. I will always be a Dodger fan, but if they sign any more high priced free agents over the age of 35 it will be easy for me to never watch another game knowing that they can't win that way.
Also, you can't possibly make the case that the Dodgers were a better team than the Yankees or Angels because we made it further in the playoffs. We made it further because we faced the rest of the "nancy" NL West and a Cubs team that fell asleep at the wheel sometime in late July when clinched the NL Central.
The Dodgers are trying a different approach, dependent on the continued improvement of their younger players. A lot of fans never will be happy with that approach. They only want the biggest names that come with the biggest salaries, and they will be satisfied with nothing less.
None of last year's highest-paid free agents signed with the Phillies or the Rays, who met in the World Series. If spending the most always meant winning the World Series, the Yankees would have won rings over the last eight seasons. They didn't.
I for one will be happy if we take the "go young" approach! I've always felt that we need players from both free agency and our farm system, but the only way we could develop a winning additude was to play players that we drafted. Signing Jones, Schmidt and Pierre didn't work. 2 out of the 3 we knew it wouldn't work. And Jones was questionable at best. We certainly need to fill our holes with free agency. But to try and develop excess through it is ridiculous. We'd have 5 full time outfielders with Manny. 2 of which would be on the bench making a combined 30 million dollars. I'm not in favor of that. But at the same we would still have a hole in the outfield if we didn't sign Manny.
Logan White has done his job in the draft. Taking great players and loading up our system with uber-talent. Ned has traded some of that away in mostly questionable deals. Whatever system he has for the Dodgers (I don't think he has one) isn't working and we do need a change before he ruins what little hope we do have.
The McCourts are running a business, not only a team. There always will be fans resenting that, especially when the Yankees seem to have no limit to their resources. But it's reality.
I totally understand that baseball is a business. There is a huge amount of money being passed around and it can't go overlooked. The reality is, when passing around such huge amounts of moeny, why would they do it so unwisely? Why would they invest 125 million in the ideas of a mad man named Ned Colletti? Oh the humanity!
It will be easy for me to turn my back on the Dodgers when they raise ticket prices, parking prices, and concession prices, and they can't even field a winning team. It will be easy to change my colors to a blue more aqua (Seattle).
UGH...
So, Rafael Furcal is set to sign a contract tomorrow no matter what. Apparently he has offers from the A's, Dodgers, and Royals. He has come out and said specifically that he does not want to play for anyone but the Dodgers. This is likely his way of jacking the price up for the Royals and the A's. And it has worked so far. And with this I could only suppose that he will eventually sign with the A's.
The Dodgers on the other hand have apparently offered him an incentive laden deal. Probably a 2 year deal with 2 option years. I think I'd rather have Furcal at short than Pierre in left. That's what it comes down to. If we sign Furcal you can close the door on Pierre as an everyday player. However, if Furcal isn't signed the likelyhood of Torre starting Pierre everyday in left is a disturbing thought. But he'd do it to have his "leadoff hitter".
I'd rather just sign Furcal, Dunn, and (name your starting pitcher here) and settle with trading Pierre and Jones for nothing and a lot of cash. But that's unlikely.
My main goal would be, "How can I keep Joe from starting Pierre at all costs?"
Unfortunately, Colletti is the guy who thinks Pierre should be starting... so... go figure. We also paid 45 some odd million for 6 games of Jason Schmidt knowing he was injured... and 36 million for a 172 hitter and anything over 2 million for Pierre is ludacris. And now we have shafted Saito!
And now there are rumors of Omar Vizquel. Of course. He is an ex Giant. Where all of this comes from I have no idea. But Colletti is retarded. So get ready for the 6 year deal for Manny and the 3 year deal for Pettitte. I wouldn't be surprised... nor happy. But that would be typical of the worst GM in baseball. I also wouldn't be surprised if he overpaid for another starter. I think he will eventually sign Pettitte and another starter at 2-3 years similar to the Brett Tomko deal a few years back.
Back to the point. I think Furcal will sign with the A's. Somewhere in the 4year X 44 million range. If they can add Giambi to DH they would all of a sudden be able to contend with the Angels.
My crystal ball says the Dodgers overpay for Orlando Cabrera, Andy Pettitte and Pedro Martinez all getting multi-year deals and blocking 17 prospects that are better than them allready which Ned trades for Alfonso Soriano. Then my crystal ball laughed at me for being a Dodger fan...
The Dodgers on the other hand have apparently offered him an incentive laden deal. Probably a 2 year deal with 2 option years. I think I'd rather have Furcal at short than Pierre in left. That's what it comes down to. If we sign Furcal you can close the door on Pierre as an everyday player. However, if Furcal isn't signed the likelyhood of Torre starting Pierre everyday in left is a disturbing thought. But he'd do it to have his "leadoff hitter".
I'd rather just sign Furcal, Dunn, and (name your starting pitcher here) and settle with trading Pierre and Jones for nothing and a lot of cash. But that's unlikely.
My main goal would be, "How can I keep Joe from starting Pierre at all costs?"
Unfortunately, Colletti is the guy who thinks Pierre should be starting... so... go figure. We also paid 45 some odd million for 6 games of Jason Schmidt knowing he was injured... and 36 million for a 172 hitter and anything over 2 million for Pierre is ludacris. And now we have shafted Saito!
And now there are rumors of Omar Vizquel. Of course. He is an ex Giant. Where all of this comes from I have no idea. But Colletti is retarded. So get ready for the 6 year deal for Manny and the 3 year deal for Pettitte. I wouldn't be surprised... nor happy. But that would be typical of the worst GM in baseball. I also wouldn't be surprised if he overpaid for another starter. I think he will eventually sign Pettitte and another starter at 2-3 years similar to the Brett Tomko deal a few years back.
Back to the point. I think Furcal will sign with the A's. Somewhere in the 4year X 44 million range. If they can add Giambi to DH they would all of a sudden be able to contend with the Angels.
My crystal ball says the Dodgers overpay for Orlando Cabrera, Andy Pettitte and Pedro Martinez all getting multi-year deals and blocking 17 prospects that are better than them allready which Ned trades for Alfonso Soriano. Then my crystal ball laughed at me for being a Dodger fan...
Friday, December 12, 2008
Why I like the A.J. Burnett signing.
Because I hate the Yankees.
Inevitably Burnett will take the spot that Pavano left as overpaid, injury riddled, starting pitcher in New York.
Undenaible evidence shows that Burnett is a bomb waiting to explode.
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/AJBurnett.html
The concept of "scapular loading" comes with certain rules that must be kept to not just keep from serious injury but also help in control.
O'Leary explain the process pretty well, but to take it step further, I've always felt that limiting your extra movements will always help your pitching ability. The reason that the Inverted "W" is so bad is because of the stress the elbow and shoulder go through when transitioning from the "M" (inverted "W") to the fast movements when the front foot lands of actually throwing a ball.
It reminds me of Eric Davis and his high step/low hands combination that created a ton of power and created a huge loop in his swing while delaying his timing.
Timing is one of the finer keys to pitching. Having a detailed loop in your delivery not only creates added stress to your elbow and shoulder, but it also creates a timing hitch in your delivery. If your hitch is off just a little bit, your all over the place and can't locate. For 16.5 million, the Yankees could have done better.
Personally I would have targeted Teixiera first. Then a lower tier pitcher, maybe Ben Sheets for 3 years 42 million'ish. Lowe at 16 million over 4 years simply isn't worth it. He's good, reliable and old. He'll produce well, but he wont be worth 16 million. He's worth what you give him... but he's not worth what Borass wants. Maybe 12-14 million. maybe....
Overall, if Burnett can be healthy over 3 years of the course of the 5 years of the contract its a push if he pitches like he can when he is healthy. I only like the signing because it means that the Yankees are out 82.5 million bucks and have a potentially huge hole in the rotation.
Inevitably Burnett will take the spot that Pavano left as overpaid, injury riddled, starting pitcher in New York.
Undenaible evidence shows that Burnett is a bomb waiting to explode.
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/AJBurnett.html
The concept of "scapular loading" comes with certain rules that must be kept to not just keep from serious injury but also help in control.
O'Leary explain the process pretty well, but to take it step further, I've always felt that limiting your extra movements will always help your pitching ability. The reason that the Inverted "W" is so bad is because of the stress the elbow and shoulder go through when transitioning from the "M" (inverted "W") to the fast movements when the front foot lands of actually throwing a ball.
It reminds me of Eric Davis and his high step/low hands combination that created a ton of power and created a huge loop in his swing while delaying his timing.
Timing is one of the finer keys to pitching. Having a detailed loop in your delivery not only creates added stress to your elbow and shoulder, but it also creates a timing hitch in your delivery. If your hitch is off just a little bit, your all over the place and can't locate. For 16.5 million, the Yankees could have done better.
Personally I would have targeted Teixiera first. Then a lower tier pitcher, maybe Ben Sheets for 3 years 42 million'ish. Lowe at 16 million over 4 years simply isn't worth it. He's good, reliable and old. He'll produce well, but he wont be worth 16 million. He's worth what you give him... but he's not worth what Borass wants. Maybe 12-14 million. maybe....
Overall, if Burnett can be healthy over 3 years of the course of the 5 years of the contract its a push if he pitches like he can when he is healthy. I only like the signing because it means that the Yankees are out 82.5 million bucks and have a potentially huge hole in the rotation.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Addition
Add Trevor Hoffman to the list of available relief men that wont cost as much but might still be able to produce effectively. I'm not sure I'd give him the ball in the 9th inning, but he would be nice contrast to have on a night when any of our burners (Bills, MacDonald, Kershaw, Kuroda... anyone really is a "burner" compared to Hoffman) are pitching.
On my list
I have a list of guys that, if I were GM, I'd make contact with and try to sign to relatively cheap deals.
First of all let me say that I am shying away from Manny Ramirez and thinking that just sticking with Jones is center might work out as he is playing for a contract again... maybe he can hit .222 with 25 homers. If he does that... well... he still sucks, but there is an outside chance that he steps up this season and we see the real Andruw Jones. I think, as a fan, were going to have to count on him to bat cleanup for us.
Naturally Rafael Furcal is #1 on the Dodgers list. We need a true leadoff hitter and sparkplug in the field. He has all kinds of range and a cannon arm that will cover most of what Blake can't at third. Sign him to 2 years with roll over incentives for a 3rd and 4th year if that's what he wants. I don't have any problem paying the man as long as he is healthy. After Furcal there really is no one else. He holds all the cards and as far as I'm concerned I really think he will sign with us eventually.
Then we need to start looking at bullpenn help and 1 or 2 spots in the rotation.
Ben Sheets stock seems to be dropping and if the Yankees sign Lowe, his stock as a 3rd or 4th starter may fall even further. I can't see him taking a deal less than 12- 14 million range, but if he dropps that low it's worth knocking on the door.
Randy Johnson. His asking price to play in Arizona was 8 million. If the Dodgers offer 10 he should accept and I think I would be happy with that. He is approaching 300 wins and 5000 K's. He would be the pitching version of Manny for about 12-15 home games next year.
Pedro Martinez. I'd only consider it if he were to accept 1. a very small contract (2-4 million) and 2. the possibility of having to pitch out of the bullpenn. More of it relies on his production and the production of James McDonald and Scott Elbert as I have both of them on the team in some role, long relief, set-up, or starting. Martinez might even be an acceptable closer.
I think I'd target both RJ and Pedro and let Sheets go because of his injury history. He has "Jason Schmidt" written all over him.
Keithe Foulke at one time was a legit closer. If he would accept a minor league deal he'd be worth signing.
Tom Gordon is old and resembles what type of player Ned Likes to target. Injury problems and old: lets give him a 3 year deal worth 21 million.
Julian Tavarez. A few poor seasons with the sox doesn't mean he can't come back to the NL and be a successfull mop-up man on a minor league deal. I certainly wouldn't sign all 3 of these relievers, but getting one of them would be a sign typical of Colletti.
First of all let me say that I am shying away from Manny Ramirez and thinking that just sticking with Jones is center might work out as he is playing for a contract again... maybe he can hit .222 with 25 homers. If he does that... well... he still sucks, but there is an outside chance that he steps up this season and we see the real Andruw Jones. I think, as a fan, were going to have to count on him to bat cleanup for us.
Naturally Rafael Furcal is #1 on the Dodgers list. We need a true leadoff hitter and sparkplug in the field. He has all kinds of range and a cannon arm that will cover most of what Blake can't at third. Sign him to 2 years with roll over incentives for a 3rd and 4th year if that's what he wants. I don't have any problem paying the man as long as he is healthy. After Furcal there really is no one else. He holds all the cards and as far as I'm concerned I really think he will sign with us eventually.
Then we need to start looking at bullpenn help and 1 or 2 spots in the rotation.
Ben Sheets stock seems to be dropping and if the Yankees sign Lowe, his stock as a 3rd or 4th starter may fall even further. I can't see him taking a deal less than 12- 14 million range, but if he dropps that low it's worth knocking on the door.
Randy Johnson. His asking price to play in Arizona was 8 million. If the Dodgers offer 10 he should accept and I think I would be happy with that. He is approaching 300 wins and 5000 K's. He would be the pitching version of Manny for about 12-15 home games next year.
Pedro Martinez. I'd only consider it if he were to accept 1. a very small contract (2-4 million) and 2. the possibility of having to pitch out of the bullpenn. More of it relies on his production and the production of James McDonald and Scott Elbert as I have both of them on the team in some role, long relief, set-up, or starting. Martinez might even be an acceptable closer.
I think I'd target both RJ and Pedro and let Sheets go because of his injury history. He has "Jason Schmidt" written all over him.
Keithe Foulke at one time was a legit closer. If he would accept a minor league deal he'd be worth signing.
Tom Gordon is old and resembles what type of player Ned Likes to target. Injury problems and old: lets give him a 3 year deal worth 21 million.
Julian Tavarez. A few poor seasons with the sox doesn't mean he can't come back to the NL and be a successfull mop-up man on a minor league deal. I certainly wouldn't sign all 3 of these relievers, but getting one of them would be a sign typical of Colletti.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Playing for a contract.
You hear the talk about free agents having a big year the same year their contracts end so they can sign a big contract the following year. Last year Manny Ramirez really increased his stock after he was traded to the Dodgers by hitting just about everything out of the park and also setting records in the post season! Before the trade he was looking at 20 million from the Sox or declining his option and probably getting less than that (17 million'ish) over the next 3 years.
As a Dodger he proved he wasn't done just yet and is likely worth more than the 17 million GM's were willing to give him. His agent, Scott Borass, is now demanding a 6 year deal. He certainly isn't worth it, but that's negotiating. He'll likely get at least 4 years with an option on the 5th year averaging at least 20 million a year. After the Andruw Jones project blew up in our face I can't see Colletti going anywhere near Manny and settling with Pierre in left and as our lead off hitter. (Hang on... I have to clean my desk after vomiting all over the place.)
The same concept comes into play with GM's. Next year Ned Colletti will be playing for a contract. If he can put together a team that will go to the playoffs in 2009, he may see himself getting a 3 year contract extension from Frank McCourt despite the signings of Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent's extension, Andruw Jones, and now Casey Blake.
We can determine if Ned is signing players for the benefit of the team or for his own benefit this year by evaluating the signings he makes.
Casey Blake- While Blake will help the Dodgers next year simply because we have no one else who could possibly play third (Dewitt) or second (Loretta) then we absolutely need him and all 3 years of this contract. Casey might help us reach the postseason this year, but the next year or the following he most certainly wont. His declining defense and age make him a canidate for a contract that nears something that the twins offered him. 2 years for 14 million. I'd be willing to spend 10-12 million on him just for next year so long as we dont have him in 2010-11 clogging up the bench with Pierre. This type of contract has Brett Tomko written all over it... with one exception. It's for 3 years!
Hypothetically if Ned extends his options on Manny, Furcal, Sabathia, or anyone else to 4+ years he is essentially playing for 2009 and a contract in 2010.
Who then would Ned target if he is looking forward to what the Dodgers might be able to do with the future. According to management the Dodgers are looking to going head first with the youth movement. What short term contract are available that would help the Dodgers for 2009 and free up the possibility of letting the youth have the opportunity to move their way up to a starting spot in the future?
My suggestion is Adam Dunn. 1 year @ 15 million is worth more than what Manny could give us over the next 5 or years.
I'd also like to see players like Delwyn Young, Chin Lung Hu, Ivan DeJesus, and John McDonald get a decent shot at a full time job. We were short at 3rd base and second base and signing someone like Mark Loretta was essential at least for the bench.
Signing someone like Casey Blake means that Ned Colletti is playing for a contract. If that is true then we should look forward to rumors of signing Manny, Furcal, Sabathia, and others to huge contracts.
As a Dodger he proved he wasn't done just yet and is likely worth more than the 17 million GM's were willing to give him. His agent, Scott Borass, is now demanding a 6 year deal. He certainly isn't worth it, but that's negotiating. He'll likely get at least 4 years with an option on the 5th year averaging at least 20 million a year. After the Andruw Jones project blew up in our face I can't see Colletti going anywhere near Manny and settling with Pierre in left and as our lead off hitter. (Hang on... I have to clean my desk after vomiting all over the place.)
The same concept comes into play with GM's. Next year Ned Colletti will be playing for a contract. If he can put together a team that will go to the playoffs in 2009, he may see himself getting a 3 year contract extension from Frank McCourt despite the signings of Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent's extension, Andruw Jones, and now Casey Blake.
We can determine if Ned is signing players for the benefit of the team or for his own benefit this year by evaluating the signings he makes.
Casey Blake- While Blake will help the Dodgers next year simply because we have no one else who could possibly play third (Dewitt) or second (Loretta) then we absolutely need him and all 3 years of this contract. Casey might help us reach the postseason this year, but the next year or the following he most certainly wont. His declining defense and age make him a canidate for a contract that nears something that the twins offered him. 2 years for 14 million. I'd be willing to spend 10-12 million on him just for next year so long as we dont have him in 2010-11 clogging up the bench with Pierre. This type of contract has Brett Tomko written all over it... with one exception. It's for 3 years!
Hypothetically if Ned extends his options on Manny, Furcal, Sabathia, or anyone else to 4+ years he is essentially playing for 2009 and a contract in 2010.
Who then would Ned target if he is looking forward to what the Dodgers might be able to do with the future. According to management the Dodgers are looking to going head first with the youth movement. What short term contract are available that would help the Dodgers for 2009 and free up the possibility of letting the youth have the opportunity to move their way up to a starting spot in the future?
My suggestion is Adam Dunn. 1 year @ 15 million is worth more than what Manny could give us over the next 5 or years.
I'd also like to see players like Delwyn Young, Chin Lung Hu, Ivan DeJesus, and John McDonald get a decent shot at a full time job. We were short at 3rd base and second base and signing someone like Mark Loretta was essential at least for the bench.
Signing someone like Casey Blake means that Ned Colletti is playing for a contract. If that is true then we should look forward to rumors of signing Manny, Furcal, Sabathia, and others to huge contracts.
Monday, December 1, 2008
What to do?
As the options of free agents become more available via arbitration, we can see an inclusion in some potential players joining the Dodgers.
The infield.
Plan A: Sign Ray Durham to play second base. A high OBP mixed with league average production otherwise is worth at least 5 million based on his age. Sign Edgar Rentaria to play SS and have DeWitt at 3B. The lineup is weak, the defense is weaker. Grade F
Plan B: Trade for Mike Lowell to play third and eat most of the salary so we don't have to give up any big time prospects. Although unlikely, we could have Hu at short and Dewitt at second. The lineup is still weak, but the defense is much better. Grade C
Plan C: Don't do anything. Play Dewitt at third, Dejesus at SS and Hu at second. Poor offense, good defense. Grade C. I think this is the best option.
Whatever prospects we have to give up for Lowell is just too much. Unless we are making room by trading Pierre to only see Ned sign Ibanez would just make no sense. Next year should be a rebuilding year for the Dodgers. By that I mean that we shouldn't sign anyone and offer arbitration to everyone. Collect the draft picks and get the heck outta dodge.
If we win the division, all the better. But when our competitors in the NL West have no money to spend and they are all rebuilding we might as well save our bullets to use them when we need them.
The infield.
Plan A: Sign Ray Durham to play second base. A high OBP mixed with league average production otherwise is worth at least 5 million based on his age. Sign Edgar Rentaria to play SS and have DeWitt at 3B. The lineup is weak, the defense is weaker. Grade F
Plan B: Trade for Mike Lowell to play third and eat most of the salary so we don't have to give up any big time prospects. Although unlikely, we could have Hu at short and Dewitt at second. The lineup is still weak, but the defense is much better. Grade C
Plan C: Don't do anything. Play Dewitt at third, Dejesus at SS and Hu at second. Poor offense, good defense. Grade C. I think this is the best option.
Whatever prospects we have to give up for Lowell is just too much. Unless we are making room by trading Pierre to only see Ned sign Ibanez would just make no sense. Next year should be a rebuilding year for the Dodgers. By that I mean that we shouldn't sign anyone and offer arbitration to everyone. Collect the draft picks and get the heck outta dodge.
If we win the division, all the better. But when our competitors in the NL West have no money to spend and they are all rebuilding we might as well save our bullets to use them when we need them.
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