Raffy

Raffy has had his struggles this year. I suppose we can claim that he is still kinda getting his feet wet after the back surgery last year. I guess.... with only 5 stolen bases and 4 caught stealing... well, his speed is obviously gone. And really it has been a tale of two Raffy's. When leading off he is batting 278/350/377. When batting behind Pierre he is 201/272/276. All the more reason to dump Pierre now while his stock is kinda high. It's not like we dont have a few guys that could fill that 4th ourfielder spot. I look forward to Furcal breaking out of his shell for the second half. Ofcourse, through July so far he is 372/460/558. So there!

Orlando!

I hate to say something like this, but Orlando is kinda overrated. His offense has been nice and his defense is certainly an improvement over Kant. But... he really lacks the range now that he is 32. His bat has been a surprisingly solid structure in a very weak lineup. He gets on base and hits for decent power. He also has a ton of K's. His recent struggles at the plate are typical ups and downs of playing in the majors and we can expect him to return to his career norms. Certainly not as hot as he was when the season started, but not near as cold as he was entering Milwaukee. At the moment there is no one else I'd want at second for the rest of this year. Good job Orlando... stay healthy.

James Loney

Another dissappointing season for James. Like last year, James is a singles hitter that makes a lot of contact, but rarely makes good contact. His power numbers have also dipped, at least from what is expected of him.

At the plate James ranks near the bottom of all qualified first basemen just above Casey Kotchman and below Adam Laroche. With the glove he is merely league average. He isn't as bad as Giambi or Prince, but even Ryan Howard has proven to be able to play a good first base. Even with an admirable second baseman that can cover more ground that Kent, James is still just a league average player. This is a position where I think the Dodgers can vastly upgrade their offense, especially while Loneys stock is still relatively high. He may still have a bright future, but I can't see it getting much better than what he already is. League Average. I like him, nice guy, crazy eyes, but just a singles hitter. I expect better, and I don't think James is the guy that can do that for us.

First half roundup - Russell

Russell has been the biggest dissappointment by far this year. His defense will always be pretty good, but he wont ever throw many batters out because it seems that Charlie Hough (though has worked wonders in James Macdonald) hasn't taught any of our pitchers to hold runners on, or a decent change up. But thats a different story.

At the plate J. Martin has shown no power, but a huge walk rate. Are pitchers pitching around him? It seems that Russell is trying to force the issue too much. He's trying to force the ball to left or to right. He gets a little clogged in his swing and maybe tenses up. I don't know, but whatever it is, he needs to figure it out, because the bullpenn is short a bit and someone other than Manny is going to have to start producing. The good news is that Russ appears to be playing better. He really needs to get out there and not have an agenda. Just react to the pitch and hit it solid. Sounds easy huh? hah.

Trade ideas... 3 moves at the break

I think this was the entire reason that I created this blog. So I can vent my backward ideas without having to madden the people with real baseball identities. The ideas I have are usually based on a video game version of what I think is possible and are so unlikely that I would have better luck at actually trying to become the GM of the Dodgers and propose the actual trades.

Anyway, here goes. Let me first off say that I love the current Dodger team. Great chemistry, home grown, young, talent, with huge upside. But...

I would first trade Russell Martin to the Blue Jays for Roy Halladay. Straight up. Maybe there are a few PTBNL types, but nothing to write home about. Russell has denied the Dodgers from locking him up to a long term, lucrative deal and it seems likely that he will hit the free agent market in 3 years and leave LA. He is the spine of the best team in baseball. The hard part is that at the moment he is struggling mightily. I love Russell, but he is Canadian and I have a feeling that he wont be around for the long haul anyway.

2) Trade McDonals, Elbert, Bell, Mattingly, and Lucas May for Victor Martinez.

3) Trade Loney and Pierre for Todd Helton.

I'm almost certain that all my trades are just a ploy on ridding myself of Juan Pierre.

Our lineup is significantly stronger and our pitching staff is unbeatable. Then I would try and address the bullpenn. But really, the only person I want at the moment that wont cost much would be Takashi Saito, of all people. It looks like Broxton might miss some time and Belli will certainly be out a few more weeks. Saito might be an easy get for Ned.

Furcal
Kemp
V-Mart
Manny
Helton
Blake
Ethier
Huddy
P

Loretta
Meintchavatichithcaz
Ausmus
Castro
Paul

Halladay
Bills
Kershaw
Kuroda
Wolf

Broxton
Tron
Belli
Saito
Leach
Mota
Weaver

Doesn't get any better than that!

All Star Break

While the Dodgers have comfortably padded their lead in the NL West, its surprising to see that the next best team in the NL is the Giants. At 7 games back they are better than the Cardinals (1st in central) and Phillies (1st in east). And the Rockies are only 2 games back from the Giants. Only the Padres and D-Backs are the true jokes of the NL West. AND, the NL West is no longer the basement of the NL.

Tomorrow I will try and put together some stats that explain Furcal, Loney, and Martin's poor first halves, and then rank each position player in the NL.

What is Juan Pierre doing to Andre Ethier?

Matt Kemp singled home Orlando Hudson for a walk off win. Celebration ensued.... and Juan Pierre saw this as his chance to mount Andre Ethier. I know Andre is a good looking guy and all, but couldn't it have waited till after the camera's were off, or at least talk to him about it first?

here is a link to the video: http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=5084667&c_id=la where it appears as though Juan really is thrusting and "jousting" Andre. And the look on Andre's face! Head down, fists clenched, it really was a "brokeback moutain" moment.

Just take a pitch already!

It seems as though Hamels was just lights out tonight. There were a few times in the game when it was concievable that we might get a shot, but alas, our patience had struck out.

Martin and Ethier were clearly not themselves at the dish, while Pierre is looking more and more like... well... Pierre. Its a matter of time before he begins his regression to the mean. As for Martin, who knows? Maybe he is injured? Maybe he should dump his crazy girlfrind?

Anyway, Hamels had 17 three pitch at bats, according to Vin. And I doubt that there were that many 0-2 counts. We were off for one game and Hamels was on. Lets come back tomorrow and make some magic for Milton.

Mota finished the game recording 5 outs! Apparently Ausmus gave him some pointers about hiding the ball better and tightening up his delivery. Seems to be working. I still dont trust him, but as long as he comes in for mop up duty and doesn't walk anyone, I'm happy.

Bowa Boner.

To quote Boner himself:



"I'm going to tell you something. If Manny doesn't sign with us, we're in deep trouble. Deep, deep, deep trouble...We're going to be lost without a guy of that caliber a hitter in our lineup...There's two places I really don't want him. The other place is Anaheim because we'd have to read about it every day. If he goes to the Giants, the Giants have definitely improved their ballclub, and if they put a hitter like that in the lineup, they'll be the team to beat I think."

"Manny is sort of that constant in that lineup," Bowa said. "With the kids, you don't know what you're going to get."

I agree that Manny was impressive last year and that "the kids" underperformed. But, between Martin, Loney, Kemp, and Ethier, we know pretty darn well that they are good enough to be on any starting roster in baseball. The worst thing for the Dodgers right now is crochety old dudes who think "young kids" are ruining the game because they get paid more. While I enjoy Bowa's feistyness and "giddyup", I hate that he is officially "the old guy that finds a reason to hate everyone".

What's more is, before Furcal went down, "the kids" were part of a team that hosted the 3rd best offense in all of baseball. Cenrtainly Manny is better than the alternative (Pierre or Dunn), but to suggest that we are nothing without Manny is absurd. Without Manny, right now, we are a better team than last year. Furcal is an upgrade at short, if he is healthy. Blake is an upgrade at third. Dewitt is an upgrade at second. Pierre, surprisingly, is an upgrade in left, over having Jones in center.

I'd certainly welcome Manny if he wants to come back. But 2 years 45 million is a very generous offer and he should consider taking it before it becomes 1 year 17 million. At least he isn't Bobby Abreu, who will likely sign for 1 year 5 million.

The main concern for this team is the starting pitching... and the bullpenn. Why Guillermo Mota? I could see signing him for half a million with incentives, but he really isn't worth more than what McDonald, Elbert, Stults, or Troncoso will be able to do. I just don't see the value of adding a guy like with little value for so much money. Why not just resign Beimel? I just don't get the signings.

Considering the starting pitching: I guess only Randy Wolf is left... or Braden Looper. Looper is older and perhaps more reliable and a better pitcher. Wolf has pretty good K ratios which will bode well for the weak Dodger defense. In reality were looking at adding two starting pitchers. Why not sign both. Put Looper in the pen when we don't need him until April 25th and use Wolf as the 4th starter. Not the best situation... but not terribly horrible either.

Bills
Kershaw
Kuroda
Wolf
Looper

Broxton
Kuo
Wade
Mota
Troncoso
Elbert
McDonald

I have no problem with that.

Calling all NES geeks!

Here's a little treat for ya!

So, the video quality isn't the best... I just need to get a new camera.

Even cooler is that there are other versions. One where you can play at the old Yankee stadium. One where you can play at Wrigley Field. Another where you can play at an option of 6 stadiums including Fenway. In the Fenway game you can also play a season or a tournament. It really opens up a whole new game for me!

I did some studying up on ROM hacking to see if there were a way to get a game with all 30 stadiums, the season option and editable players... looks like a lot of work. Maybe when I am done with school.

So boring!

One guy getting little to no interest from anyone is Ray Durham! To go along with Garret Anderson, Eric Hinske, Jim Edmonds, Paul Byrd, and Fatdalis Perez, Durham might be a valuable assett on the bench with Loretta. Defensively he plays only one position. But truely his only value comes from his bat. It's not what it once was, but his plate discipline is impressive and he does swing it from both sides. Should something happen to Delwyn or Loretta he'd be a nice option coming off the bench or in spot starts at 2nd. In the next few weeks there are going to be a lot of singings.

Manny Ramirez
Orlando Cabrera
Adam Dunn
Bobby Abreu
Ben Sheets
Orlando Hudson
Andy Pettitte
Jason Varitek
Ty Wigginton
Ivan Rodriguez
Kevin Millar
Mark Grudzielanek
Braden Looper

Free Agent signings

I think it is safe to say that Ned Colletti has done a bad job with his free agent signings. We all know that. But lets take a different look at this situation alltogether.

1. The Dodgers currently have 10 free agents that still haven't signed with anyone this offseason. Only the Red Sox and Mets are close. Of the remaining (Joe Beimel, lhp; Gary Bennett, c; Nomar Garciaparra, ss; Jason Johnson, rhp; Jeff Kent, 2b; Greg Maddux, rhp (aanounced retirement); Pablo Ozuna; Manny Ramirez, of; Mark Sweeney) only Beimel and Nomar might be able to get a contract that guarantees them a spot on the 25 man roster or DL. Manny, Kent, and Maddux are all set to retire. But the rest of the guys are crap. No one will sign them. And to be honest I'm surprised anyone signed Berroa.

2. No one wants the current FA signings we have. Think of any of our current position players that were signed as free agents. Schmidt, Furcal, Pierre, Jones, Kuroda, Blake, Loretta... do you think anyone would want them in a trade. I think teams might take a flier on Loretta. And someone might add Furcal, Kuroda, and Blake if we put some money in the pot. But clearly no one wants Pierre, Jones, or Schmidt.

Ned has done such a terrible job at putting together a team that can be flexible, moveable contracts that he has no room to sign one of the greatest right handed batters of all time. Granted, the game he is playing with Boras is legendary. Lets just hope he waits it out and pulls of 2 year deal with 3rd year option. I have a bad feeling that ultimately he will end up with the Giants.

Anyway... this post was focused directly on the bad signings of Ned Colletti. It can only get worse with names like Kris Benson, Jon Garland, and Randy Wolf being bandied about.

The End of an era....

Sayonara Andruw Jones. Apparently team officials want Jones gone by January 15th. No sense in keeping him until after the he proves he can do something and try and trade him and save 5 million. Lets just cut our ties now and let him show progress with some other team on our dime. It just begs me to ask one question...

When will the Ned Colletti era end?

cross your fingers.

Good and Bad news.

The good news is that Pat Burell signed with the Rays for an annual salary of 8 million dollars. This means the price for Manny should drop off quite a bit. I had Burrell going for at least 10-12 million a year. Last year Pat made 14 million and it's concieveable that he's be looking for a slight bump this year. For him to take half of what was projected just shows you the market for baseclogging/non-defensive hitmen.

The bad news: If Burell is going for roughly half of what was expected this brings Manny into play for a lot more teams. Manny at 15 million instead of 25 million makes both New York teams, the Giants, Angels, any AL team, and the Dodgers into the bidding war for him. In the end I don't think anyone can offer him more than what the Dodgers can, but does this mean some desperate AL team offers him the 6 year deal he is looking for? Even if the annual salary is only 15 million a year, thats still 90 million bucks. I can't see the Dodgers going past 3 years and 60-70 million.

If we can have Dunn at 9 million a year he is totally worth it! I'm not as sure about him playing first as I once was, but it is an option. Even Bobby Abreu at less than 10 million a year is a steal. If that would mean Ethier moves back to left our outfield defense would be a significant upgrade. Granted Abreu's defensive numbers have dropped off quite a bit. I still think I'd rather have Manny in left for 3 years and 66.6 million. The number is fitting.

Payroll

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/los-angeles-dodgers.html

According to Cott's baseball contracts the Dodgers have, roughly, 88 million locked up for the 2009 season. I am estimating 5 million each for Ethier, Martin, and Broxton. I think Martin and Ethier will get more than 5 and Broxton less, but in the end were talking about less than 2 million each way. So the payroll is currently between 82-94 million range. Still far less than last year.

And while we are still not using our resources to the best of their abilities (Dewitt at second?), we still have enough cash free to sign Manny. But we also need at least one more starter. We are still 28 million below what we were at last year, but given the decline in the economy, I am to assume that we will be somewhere in the 110 million range.

A guy like Andy Pettitte must be on the dodgers radar. At 10 million next year I'll take him over having Sheets, Perez, or Garland all of which have significant draw backs and multiple year contract requests. Garland might be the pony of the group. He would eat innings at a terrible cost. Perez would be a nightmare watcing because he walks everyone. And Sheets is just another Jason Schmidt in the making. He's missed significant time 3 of his last 4 years. He's been effective, but what we need is someone to eat innings (be healthy), be effective, and also not cost us more than one year.

Randy Johnson right?

Wrong.

Anyway, Pettitte should be the only one on the Dodgers list. If we could trade Jones and eat some of the salary then great. But I'd rather just send him to Albuquerque and hope he figures it out.

Hopefully after signing Pettitte we still have enough money to make a run at Manny for 2 years and 45 million again. Backload the contract so we can pay him more when Jones and Schmidt leave.

By 2010 Martin, Ethier, Broxton, and Bills will all qualify for a bump. It's only going to get harder from here on out. I hope Ned gets fired!

Just spitballin here...

So, cut me a little slack.

Jason Stark has come out and said that the Dodgers are interested in signing Adam Dunn. Surely not to play left field!? While Dunn is a power threat I still think Manny would be needed in our order. So Loney would have to go... for a starting pitcher! But who?

I've expressed my interest in Bedard already. If we signed Dunn and Manny, we'd also have to shed some payroll. Naturally no one would want to take on Jones or Pierre all by themselves. I think we'd have to pair either of them up with Loney and Hu and take on a mediocrely bad contract.

Something like this really hamstrings the process, so Ned better have something lined up before signing Dunn. I think if he were actually going to sign Dunn he would have done it already. I think this is just a scare tactic. Manny will sign eventually with the Dodgers and take 22-25 million over 2 years with a third option. I like the direction this is going for the Dodgers. I wouldn't mind if we signed Dunn to play first and traded Loney for a decent starting pitcher while also ridding ourselves of Jones or Pierre. Could you imagine the lineup?

Furcal
Martin
Dunn
Manny
Ethier
Kemp
Blake
Dewitt
P

Not too bad. Plenty of power and OBP at the top and some clutchiness/veteranyness/potential at the bottom. I like it. So that means its not going to happen. I still don't like have Casey Blake but whatever.

Better options at SP.

After some excessive research (on youtube) I could see a possibility of the Dodgers plunging into the international market. While it can be argued that Ned has hamstringed the farm by not spending any money at all on international players, whoever is scouting the japanese market is clearly doing a great job. To say we need more of it is an understatement.

Takashi Saito and Hiroki Kuroda could possibly get some company with either Kenshin Kawakami or Koji Uerehara. I like both pitchers. Both have decent K rates and go deep into the season. Both supposedly have similar traits to Kuroda as "big game pitchers". If we could sign either of them (or both... unlikely) for a similar contract to Kuroda I'd be happy with it. Considering our optoins are now limited to :

Pedro Martinez
Eric Milton
Oliver Perez
Ben Sheets
Randy Wolf
Andy Pettitte

I'd rather take the international route as well.

So... there goes that.

Johnson is off the table. Thanks to the giants I can hate a player that is easy to hate. The official Red-Arse will be pitching for the Orange and Black next year throwing his 45 year old 90 mile an hour fast balls to Dodger hitters not likely named Manny Ramirez.

The Dodgers largest hole is still in the rotation. Even if we don't sign Manny we have options that could play reasonably well in left field. A Juandruw Pones monster in left/center would be a nasty thing to see. It would also be an abomination to have to settle with a 4th and 5th starter giving us laegue average or less quality because McCourt couldn't drop the cash on decent players. The well is drying up fast. And if Ben Sheets is still eyeing Texas our option shortens to .... gulp... Andy Pettitte.

Over the last 4 years he has been a little more durable than I would like to remember, but he hasn't been very effective. And at 10+ million dollars being called Randy Johnson Lite at a fraction of the cost isn't very reassuring.

While the talk around the net is about Manny being freed up for the Dodgers and literally no one else, the Dodgers largest hole is still in the pitching staff. Who else is there.

I had conversations with my brother concerning Eric Bedard. I suppose my main concern is that if he couldn't handle the big lights in Seattle, what would enable him to settle down in LA and become the lights out pitcher of 2007? Surely we'd be able to get him without giving up anyone on our current 25 man roster. I'd send Hu, Miller, Orenduff, Repko, and another throw in. I doubt that would get it done, but you never know? Naturally it would be a temporary fix. But Hu is only going to be a caddy to Furcal/Dewitt up the middle and finding someone to replace him shouldn't go any further than our own farm system.

The main reason why I would consider Bedard is because, 1. was good last year when he wasn't hurt, 2. he is canadian. I could only assume that he and Martin would get along well enough to overcome the "playing in the big city" effect.

Miller, Orenduff and Repko are nothing that the current team wont miss. Getting any kind of value for these 4 would be a great coupe. I doubt, again, that Ned would pull off such a deal and I figure he could only be thinking that something like this could only be done by sending Kershaw over. It sounds so illogical it makes sense. Not to me... but when I put my "Colletti-dunce" hat on it all lines up.

Before we can address Manny we need one more starter.

Predictions update.

So Teixiera has signed with the Yankees. Supposedly. At least this is not a FOXSports rumor. ESPN has reported that Teixiera has signed with the Yankees for 180 million over 8 years. At the beginning of the offseason it seemes simple to think that the Yankees would target Tex after losing Giambi and Abreu. Instead they traded junk for Swisher and added starting pitching depth only to come away with Teixiera before Boston could counter.

This just means its less likely that they also add Manny. Unless they trade any one or two of Melky, Swisher, Nady, Matsui and Damon. I don't think that they will hold onto all 5 but it might not be such a bad idea as Matsui and Damon are both huge injury risks. Nady is best as a part time player and Melky is best at AAA. They really should target a real centerfielder like Mike Cameron or more starting pitching depth.

This just makes it more likely that the Dodgers sign Manny. Unfortunately it also means that since Ned has the advantage in negotiations he will likely sign Manny to a 3 or 4 year deal. I still think it'd be best to just let him go and collect the picks.

Apparently Derek Lowe is in conversations with the Mets. It seems more likely that the Mets add a starting pitcher before targeting a bat like Burrell. If he signs with the Mets we get their 1st round pick and a sandwich pick. Hopefully Manny signs with someone other than the Yankees because we would get their 2nd round pick and a sandwich pick.

I still maintain that the Dodgers would do well to add maybe one or 2 starters. Id be happy with any 1 or 2 of Oliver Perez, Randy Johnson, or Ben Sheets. I'd be happy with Johnson and Sheets at 20 million total. Anything more than that and we are taking a significant risk. I't would be hard to justify signing Perez. He has high walk rates and is incredibly erratic. I like Sheets and Johnsons control as the current mix of youth we throw out there is still struggling with control. Plus Perez is a Borass client. We can't have any of that now.

Top Remaning free agents predictions

1. Mark Teixiera- Boston Red Sox.

2. Manny- New York Yankees.

3. Derek Lowe- Atlanta Braves

4. Adam Dunn- Washinton Nationals

5. Ben Sheets- Texas Rangers

6. Jason Giambi- Oakland A's

7. Milton Bradley- Toronto Blue Jays

8. Orlando Hudson- Seattle Mariners

9. Pat Burrell- New York Mets

10. Brian Fuentes- St. Louis Cardinals

11. Bobby Abreu- Cincinnatti Reds